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Baby Out With The Bathwater
If it isn’t clear by the title, I am bullish on Coffee. I have been bullish on Coffee for several years in fact but I wouldn’t have urged you to fire your broker until now. The Coffee situation has progressed from long term bullish to an imminent crisis. We’re on the cusp of the greatest demand driven bull run in coffee futures prices in history, which is why it alone makes my pick for best investment of 2009 and 2010.
I’m not your typical wishy washy investment writer. I won’t give you worthless, half hearted, and non committal projections like “coffee may very well be the top investment for 2009″ or “Coffee futures could climb 15% this year on production concerns”. You know the kinds of articles I’m referring to. Exciting enough but lacking in substance. The time has finally come for action.
Coffee has a unique story to tell. Ever since the 1997 spike in coffee futures prices to $3.50, coffee supply has grown tremendously. But so has demand. And since the earlier part of this decade the rate of change of worldwide consumption has exceeded the rate of change of production, forcing producing nations to sell from copious stocks into gradually rising prices. Slowly but surely this has resulted in the lowest coffee reserves in the hands of producers in 30 years, and the lowest stocks relative to consumption levels…wait for it…ever! Let’s add to this the catalyst that will light a fire under coffee futures prices.
Coffee, as you may know, is a moody crop. Every other year producers turn out massive crops. Having expended their energy on these crops, coffee trees go through a season of smaller production the following year, resulting in a large vacillation in reserve numbers. One year they’re added to because of a surplus, the following year drawn upon to meet a deficit. Well dear friends, 2009 will be a deficit year, somewhere to the tune of 10 million bags. This is a large deficit. Very large. And it comes at a time of historical tightness and steadily rising demand. But this is not new news. Why have coffee futures prices not started factoring in this deficit? Queue global financial crisis.
Coffee is the proverbial baby thrown out with the bathwater. While a host of other commodities had good reason to collapse in on themselves due to rapidly contracting worldwide demand and an all out fleeing of asset positions across the board, coffee was benefiting from increased at home use (because Starbucks was getting a little too pricy) encouraged by stress that accompanies a healthy fear of financial ruin and hard times to come. Demand has not slackened, and in fact looks to have increased over the last several months. Coffee is in high demand and there isn’t enough of it. It’s been sucked dry through panic selling and now is going for fire sale prices that will not last another two months. News from South and Central America of a lack of quality beans in general and defaults on contracts in particular is starting to creep in. The market technicals show clear signs of a bottom in place, and the start of a new upward trend.
Keep your eyes on this market and for God’s sake, if you don’t own coffee yet, fire your broker!
Tom Fazio is the chief investment analyst and author on commodity trading at Hobofinance.com and coffee futures trading at coffee-futures-trading.com, where he provides different investment options for investors to profit from the coming bull market in coffee.
lyric from House “Comes down to the way you wrestle with things I just put down” Episode Babies and Bathwater
Here are the songs from that episode.
Babies & Bathwater – 04/19/05
Happiness : Grant Lee Buffalo Nevermind me ’cause I’ve been dead
Out of my body been out of my head
Nevermind the songs they hum
Don’t want to sing along
There’s nothin’ that I said
That’ll bring you happiness happiness
Is hard to come by I confess
I’m bad at this thing happiness
If you find it share it with the rest of us
Nevermind the words that came
Out of my mouth when all that I could feel was pain
The difference in the two of us
Comes down to the way
You rise over things I just put down
That’ll bring you happiness happiness
Is hard to come by I confess
I’m bad at this thing happiness
If you find it share it with the rest of us
Rest of us
Ooh ooh ooh
Nevermind me ’cause I’ve been dead
Out of my body been out of my head
Nevermind the curse I wore
Proud like a badge
Till it just don’t shine no more
That’ll bring you happiness happiness
Is hard to come by I confess
I’m bad at this thing happiness
If you find it share it with the rest of us
Rest of us
Teardrop : Massive Attack
Nevermind me ’cause I’ve been dead
Out of my body been out of my head
Nevermind the songs they hum
Don’t want to sing along
There’s nothin’ that I said
That’ll bring you happiness happiness
Is hard to come by I confess
I’m bad at this thing happiness
If you find it share it with the rest of us
Nevermind the words that came
Out of my mouth when all that I could feel was pain
The difference in the two of us
Comes down to the way
You rise over things I just put down
That’ll bring you happiness happiness
Is hard to come by I confess
I’m bad at this thing happiness
If you find it share it with the rest of us
Rest of us
Ooh ooh ooh
Nevermind me ’cause I’ve been dead
Out of my body been out of my head
Nevermind the curse I wore
Proud like a badge
Till it just don’t shine no more
That’ll bring you happiness happiness
Is hard to come by I confess
I’m bad at this thing happiness
If you find it share it with the rest of us
Rest of us
Teardrop – Massive Attack
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Throwing Out The Baby With The Bathwater $4.95 … |
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For the Sake of the Gospel: Throw out the bathwater, but keep the Baby $15.40 Nearly thirty years ago the Seventh-day Adventist church defrocked Dr. Desmond Ford for publicly challenging the denomination’s prophetic views. At the same time and on the same basis, many other ministers also lost their positions. Ford had been a top Adventist scholar, who had taught ministerial students and future teachers in Adventism’s tertiary institutions in Australia and the U.S. What led … |
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Don’t Throw This Baby Out With The Bathwater!: A Revelation of the Revolutionists $16.20 Today’s society looks askance at the upcoming leaders, members of Generation Y. And yet this new generation may be the first in many to turn its back on racism and divisiveness, underhandedness and deceit, and turn its face back to the Christianity once so deeply revered. Why does the older generation hold such negative views of its offspring? Is it that the old rules of bias and cronyism are n… |
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Throwing the baby out with the bathwater? (Letters to the Editor).(Letter to the Editor): An article from: Journal of Nursing Scholarship $5.95 This digital document is an article from Journal of Nursing Scholarship, published by Sigma Theta Tau International Honor Society of Nursing on March 22, 2003. The length of the article is 310 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it … |
